Bluesky Thread

1. yeah, i was annoyed that no one else noticed that he isn’t actually anti p...

November 29, 2025 View original thread

1. yeah, i was annoyed that no one else noticed that he isn’t actually anti pretrain scaling

2. pretrain scaling is practically his idea, so ofc he’s not against it. He just thinks there’s more pieces to the puzzle

Ilya Sutskever & @ilyasut
X.com
One point I made that didn't come across:
- Scaling the current thing will keep leading to improvements. In particular, it won't stall.
- But something important will continue to be missing.

24 1

2 hours later

Noam Brown:

1. stop listening to social media, it’s oversimplified there

2. most AI researchers agree with each other and are saying the same thing

the disagreement is in the details

Noam Brown @polynoamial
X.com
Social media tends to frame Al debate into two caricatures:
(A) Skeptics who think LLMs are doomed and Al is a bunch of hype.
(B) Fanatics who think we have all the ingredients and superintelligence is imminent.
But if you read what leading researchers actually say (beyond the headlines), there's a surprising amount of convergence:
1) The current paradigm is likely sufficient for massive economic and societal impact, even without further research breakthroughs.
2) More research breakthroughs are probably needed to achieve AGI/ASI. (Continual learning and sample efficiency are two examples that researchers commonly point to.)

3) We probably figure them out and get there within 20 years. @demishassabis said maybe in 5-10 years. @chollet recently said about 5 years. @sama said ASl is possible in a few thousand days. @ylecun said about 10 years. @ilyasut said 5-20 years. @DarioAmodei is the most bullish, saying it's possible in 2 years though he also said it might take longer.
None of them are saying ASI is a fantasy, or that it's probably 100+ years away.
A lot of the disagreement is in what those breakthroughs will be and how quickly they will come. But all things considered, people in the field agree on a lot more than they disagree on.
Ilya Sutskever
@ilyasut • 23h
One point I made that didn't come across:
- Scaling the current thing will keep leading to improvements. In particular, it won't stall.
- But something important will continue to be missing. x.com/slow_developer...

even Dario, with the shortest timelines, he doesn’t say all the problems are known and we just need scale

yet that’s what you’d assume from listening to all the interpretations

imo i think it’s the VC & finance class that exasperated these stories

More like this